Baseball Picks 6/21

Back for some more baseball picks! Yesterday I went 5-1, winning every bet but the Reds over the Yankees.  However, I posted my prediction before they scratched Johnny Cueto from his start.  Regardless I probably still would have taken the Reds.  Today interleague play continues and there happens to be some strong pitching matchups today which should prove for difficult bets. 

Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers faces off against Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers in what should be a pitchers duel, while Roy Halladay pitches against the surprise upstart Kyle McClellan, who has six wins for the Cardinals this year.  Up and coming Jeremy Hellickson goes against Zach Grienke, who has impressed with six wins since the beginning of May for the Brewers. 



Greinke has a knack for striking out Rays



Tuesday, June 21st 2011

8:10 pm Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Moneyline: Rays +125, Brewers -135

Runline: 7.5

Greinke has experience pitching against the Rays as a former member of the Kansas City Royals, and traditionally has crushed the Rays.  Current Rays hit .202 against Greinke, with 7 BB and 35 K in 114 AB.  Although Greinke has struggled at times this year, he currently has a 5.23 ERA, this outing should be a routine one for him and the surging Brew Crew.  Expect a low-scoring game in favor of the men from Milwaukee, as Hellickson will pitch well enough to keep it close.

Prediction: Brewers -135, Runline < 7.5

8:15 pm Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
Moneyline: Phillies -175, Cardinals +160
Runline: 7.5

This game looks pretty predictable just by looking at the starting pitching matchup.  Halladay has a 2.56 ERA this year compared to 3.96 by McClellan.  Plus, the Cardinals biggest offensive threat, Albert Pujols, is out for 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury.  St. Louis is a career 5-22 against Halladay, with nothing more than a  single and only two walks.  However, the Phillies are only 4-29 against McClellan, albeit with two home runs.  McClellan has not been nearly as sharp lately, so as tempting as it is to take the Cardinals in this one, it's hard to bet against the Phillies.

Prediction: Phillies -175, Runline < 7.5

Chad Billingsley has traditionally dominated the Tigers, and
looks to continue that Tuesday

10:10 pm Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Moneyline: Tigers -115, Dodgers +105
Runline: 7

Max Scherzer returns to face a Dodgers squad he pitched against frequently as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Tigers look for revenge after getting shutout by Clayton Kershaw last night.  The Dodgers have hit Scherzer adequately, with a .255 AVG and a .328 OBP.  However, four of their fourteen hits have came from Tony Gwynn Jr, who may not be in the lineup.  Similarly, the Tigers bat only .129 with a .222 OBP against Billingsley, and Miguel Cabrera is 0-12 lifetime against him.  Expect a pitchers duel with similar results to last night's match up.  However, if Billingsley does not get through 7 innings the Dodgers bullpen is notoriously weak.

Prediction: Dodgers +105, Runline < 7

Yesterday = 5-1
YTD = 5-1

Baseball Picks 6/20

Hey everyone it's been a while!  Took a break for a bit to finish up school and my job search.  Now I'm back, but with a new focus on the blog for the next few months: baseball.  Ever since the Bruins won the Stanley Cup last Wednesday night, I've been bored out my mind and moping around knowing that football season does not start for at least two more months (if not more...).  Therefore, I shift my attention to the MLB.  For the near future I plan on looking at baseball betting by looking at advanced statistical measures, specifically BVP to predict outcomes such as runs scored or winning teams.  I will look at three games each day and try to predict the winner and the runline.

Monday, June 20th 2011
7:05 pm Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline: Baltimore +102, Pittsburgh -112
Runline: 8

Considering the lack of pitching vs batting matchups in this one, it makes it pretty difficult to predict.  Jake Arrieta is pitching against Charlie Morton in this one, and only one Pittsburgh batter has ever hit against Arrieta.  Lyle Overbay is 0-3 in his career against Arrieta with no BB and no K.  However, Baltimore batters are a career 10-24 against Morton with 2 BB and 6 K.  This amounts to a .417 average and a .481 slugging percentage.  Although Morton has changed his delivery to fool batters, the Orioles average is pretty overwhelming.

Morton ERA = 3.21       Arrieta ERA = 4.45

Prediction: Baltimore +102, Runline > 8

7:10 pm San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
Moneyline: Padres +175, Red Sox -195
Runline: 10.5

Another interleague game in which each pitcher has a lack of experience against the other team.  Wade LeBlanc sports a 4.49 ERA and a startling 1.66 WHIP this year, alarmingly poor numbers.  Andrew Miller has yet to pitch in the majors this year, so don't expect much from him.  LeBlanc has never pitched against the Red Sox, while Padres have hit Andrew Miller relatively hard, going 10-28 for a .357 average with 3 BB and 8 K.  Expect both pitchers to leave early and Boston to win a relatively high scoring game.

Prediction: Boston -195, Runline > 10.5

Cueto has been very solid for a shaky Reds
pitching staff this year

7:10 pm New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Moneyline: Yankees +110, Reds -120
Runline: 9

The Yankees throw Ivan Nova tonight against a potent Reds offense, hence the moneyline toward the Reds.  Johnny Cueto has pitched marvelous this year, sporting a 1.68 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.  Against the Yankees in his career, Cueto has been pretty successful, with Yankees hitters batting .214 against him with 0 BB and 3 K.  Nova has only pitched against one Reds player, reserve Fred Lewis who is 1-3 against him.  Nova has been too volatile this year for the Yankees to pull this one out, and expect Cueto to continue pitching well.

Prediction: Reds -120, Runline < 9

NHL Teams That Need to Relocate

Take a look at the NHL playoffs right now, four teams remain: Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vancouver Canucks, and the San Jose Sharks.  Boston is one of the Original Six franchises and the Canucks have been around since 1971, while the Lightning and the Sharks have only been playing hockey since 1991 and 1992, respectively.  Although the Lightning and Sharks have been pretty successful franchises since their inception, with the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup in 2006, an average hockey fan would have limited interest watching these teams play in the Stanley Cup finals.  Both South Florida and the San Francisco Bay area aren't exactly hotbeds for hockey, even though neither of these teams has a terrible fanbase. The Sharks and Lightning ranked 17th and 18th, respectively, in attendance this season.  Not too shabby for teams in areas so foreign to hockey, eh?

Although these teams are not the problem, relocation is a necessity for some other teams.  Take for example, the Phoenix Coyotes.  The Coyotes averaged only 12,200 fans per game, filling their arena to only 71% of tis capacity.  In 2009 there were talks regarding the sale of the Coyotes to Hamilton, Ontario.  However, relocating a team to Hamilton could be detrimental to the Buffalo Sabres, who are already in a small market and close to Hamilton.  Jim Belsillie insists that the Coyotes be moved to Hamilton, and even though it would infringe on the territory of the Sabres and maybe even the Maple Leafs, Southern Ontario is populated enough to support another NHL Franchise.

In addition to the Coyotes, the Atlanta Thrashers have been struggling with their fan base since their inception in 1999.  The Thrashers have only made the playoffs once in their existence, and finished the 2010-2011 season with an average attendance of 13,500 fans per game, only filling their stadium to 72.6% capacity.  They are currently owned by a group that also owns the Atlanta Hawks, and this group is looking to unload the struggling franchise.  Where would be a great destination for the Thrashers?  Maybe Chicago, as they have a large enough market for another hockey team.  However, there is speculation that the Thrashers may move back to Winnipeg and reincarnate the Jets!  One may ask, why Winnipeg? Do people even live in Manitoba?  As of the 2006 Census there were over 700,000 people in the Winnepeg Capital Region, and the MTS center houses over 15,000 fans.  Although the arena size is not ideal, a much stronger fanbase is.

Finally, the Florida Panthers have failed to establish much of a presence in the Orange State since 1993, their first year in the league.  The Panthers made the Stanley Cup Finals in 1996, but lost to the Colorado Avalanche.  Since then the Panthers have been futile at winning games, and lack a strong fanbase.  Even though they get almost 16,000 fans per game, they currently sport a 81.5% capacity rate.  Clearly hockey is not catching on in this part of Florida and the Panthers should arguably be moving somewhere else? Where to?  Kansas City seems like a potential option, as the Blues have a strong fan base in St. Louis and the area could use another team.  However, I see another potential, more satisfying option: bring back the Hartford Whalers.  Not only did the Whalers have outstanding jerseys, but also the Eastern Seaboard can't get enough of hockey.  If the Panthers could find a strong business group in Connecticut to purchase and put a strong effort into promoting the Whalers, they could be successful in Hartford again.

     I've been taking my finals recently so the blog has not been very active, expect more recent updates once I finish my undergraduate education at St. Olaf College!

What's up with the Lakers?

Kobe needs to recapture his aggresive
style of play to give the Lakers
any kind of chance.

If you remember from my blog last week titled "Western Conference Semifinals Preview" I predicted the Lakers to beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games.  I expected the Laker's size to be far too much for the Mavericks to handle, and for Kobe to go off against the Mavericks usually porous defense.  Thus far, both of these predictions haven't came to fruitition, although in Kobe's defense he has been shooting the ball well.  In spite of some desperation attempts at the end of the game yesterday, Kobe was shooting 8-12 from the field up until the Lakers fell behind with three minutes to play.  However, Kobe only shot ONE free throw all game, ONE FREE THROW! During the regular season, Kobe averaged 7.1 free throw attempts per game, and he has averaged 6.3 per game throughout the playoffs.  Kobe needs to be more aggresive going to the hoop, as he has only attempted eleven free throws the entire series. Part of the reason why the Mavericks were so successful yesterday was because they shot 29 free throws. Even if you take out the free throws the Mavericks made at the end, they still attempted 23 free throws.  The Lakers will need to be more aggresive if they want to win another game in this series, let alone attempt to comeback from such a deficit.

Another advantage the Mavericks have utilized in this series is three-point shooting.  I pointed at this as a potential weakness for the Lakers, and it has definitely been exploited.  The Mavericks shot 12-29 from three in Game 3, 8-25 in Game 2, and 9-20 in Game 1, shooting a combined 29 for 74 for 39.2%.  Conversely, the Lakers are shooting 10 for 52 for 19.2%.  The Lakers lack a prolific three point shooter that most contenders have right now.  Stojakovic and Terry are proficient from beyond the arc for the Mavericks, along with Ray Allen for the Celtics, Kyle Korver for the Bulls, James Jones and Mike Miller for the Heat, and Kevin Durant for the Thunder.  Steve Blake, Shannon, Brown, and Ron Artest are not up to par from beyond the arc, and the Lakers clearly miss the shooting of players such as Sasha Vujacic from a few seasons ago.  Regardless, shooting 19% from behind the arc is awful.

Barea has been quite the sparkplug off the
bench for the Mavericks!

Finally, point guard play has really hurt the Lakers and has been a boon to the Mavericks.  Jose Juan Barea has provided speed, shooting, and energy off the bench, burning the Lakers defense for some easy layups.  In addition, his emergence allows the Mavericks to rest Jason Kidd.  Derek Fisher has been atrocious for the Lakers.  He shot 3-6 from the field in Game 1, 2-7 in Game 2, and 3-8 in Game 3.  Considering most his shots are hardly contested, he should be shooting a higher percentage.  In addition, his decision-making was questionable at the end of Game 3.  Fisher fouled Jason Terry going for a steal with eight seconds left on the shot clock in the final minute of the game.  Why one would foul such a good free throw shooter with the shot clock winding down makes little sense to me...  On the next possesion, Fisher tried throwing an in-bounds pass to Lamar Odom that sailed over his head.  The Lakers should have designed a play in which Fisher could ahve inbounded to Kobe, but regardless a veteran like him should not be hurting his team's chances like this late in the game.  The Lakers veteran team seems to be falling apart, and without strong three point shooting and agressive play from its superstar, is most likely heading home early this year.

Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

The Eastern Conference Semifinals are finally upon us, and the top three contenders are still in the mix with an outsider added in.  The Bulls and Heat both took care of business in five tough games against their respective opponents, the Pacers and the Sixers.  Both teams looked relatively sluggish throughout but their superior talent helped them prevail.  Boston dispatched of the New York Knicks in four quick games, an outcome unexpected by most, as the Celtics ended the regular season with poor play down the stretch.  The odd man out in these Eastern Conference Semifinals is the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta used strong defense and a barrage of different weapons on offense to eliminate Dwight Howard and company in six intensely contested games.  Can the Hawks beat the Bulls?  Can LeBron and D-Wade finally defeat their arch-nemesis the Celtics? Find out below with my Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls 

Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls
should prove too strong for the
Atlanta Hawks

While Atlanta surprised a cold shooting Magic team, the Bulls had some trouble dealing with the Indiana Pacers, winning three of their four games by six points or less.  Throughout the regular season, the Bulls took two of three from Atlanta, winning 114-81 at Atlanta in their most recent meeting.  Like in the Grizzlies-Nuggets series, Point Guard play should be the deciding factor.  Derrick Rose has developed into one of the top point guards in the league, along side Chris Paul and Deron Williams in my book, as he has increased his range and improved his shooting in his third year.  Against the Hawks this year Rose averaged 25.3 ppg and 9.0 apg in only 33 mpg, meaning that he was extremely productive and difficult to defend when he was on the court.  Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are more effective in the paint than Josh Smith and Al Horford, and although Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are sold scorers from the wing, Luol Deng and Kyle Korver can shoot outside just as well.  The only advantage I see for the Hawks is their depth and the scoring of Joe Johnson, but besides that this is Chicago's series to lose.  If Chicago plays with more confidence then they did against the Pacers expect this series to be over pretty quickly.

Make it: Chicago in 5

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Chris Bosh needs to become more of
a factor on offense for the Heat
to advance

Clearly this is the most-hyped series of the Conference Semifinals, and deservedly so.  Of the Eastern Conference teams remaining the Celtics are the most experienced and battle tested, while the Heat are the most talented and flashy.  The Celtics took three of four games from the Heat this season, and despite some late season struggles, dispatched the Knicks in the first round and look as fresh and sharp as ever.  Meanwhile the Heat lumbered through their series against the 76ers, starting most their games relatively sluggishly before finishing strong in the fourth quarter.  This does not bode well for the Celtics, as they are generally capable of breaking down a bit during the fourth quarter.  However, past performances aside, I think both these teams will be playing at their absolute best throughout this series.  LeBron holds a grudge against the Celtics for taking out his old Cavs teams, but it hasn't really shown thus far this season, as he 'only' averaged 28.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 6.5 apg against the Celtics this year.  These numbers are pretty standard for LeBron but you would expect him to perform better against an opponent with which he has a chip on his shoulder.  His fg% is only .488 against the Celtics as opposed to .510% for the season, so clearly the Celtics force him into slightly worse shots.  If the Heat want to beat the Celtics, Chris Bosh needs to step it up.  The Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins this winter for Jeff Green, giving them one less body down in the paint to guard players like Bosh, or Boozer/Gasol/Bynum in future series.  If Bosh can take advantage of an aging frontline inculding Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Glen Davis, and Shaq, he should be able to push the Heat over the top.  Bosh shot .550% from the field against Boston during the regular season, and if he can get more touches he might be able to make the difference between advancing and going home early.

He may look like an alien,
but he sure knows how
to pass the ball!

Regarding the Celtics play against Miami, Kevin Garnett shoots .543% against the Heat, while Ray Allen averages four three pointers made per game at a .571% clip.  Paul Pierce shoots .489%, but he always seems to come through in the playoffs when needed.  Judging by how the Celtics played the Heat during the regular season, and the way they swept the Knicks, one would assume Boston would continue their winning ways against the Heat.  However, Boston has always been a poor road playoff team. Many have been trying to pinpoint Boston's demise over the past few years, and it may occur here as they are getting older.  Yet, I think the Celtics can have another run at it.  Rajon Rondo is the difference maker for the Celtics, as his distribution keeps getting better.  Although his shooting may be a liability, he makes an enormous difference and can outplay either Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers by a longshot.  Celtics win this one as playoff experience trumps starpower and talent.

Make it: Celtics in 6

Western Conference Semifinals Preview

Following Memphis's 99-91 victory over the San Antonio Spurs last night, the Western Conference Semifinals are set.  #8 seeded Memphis Grizzlies vs #4 Oklahoma City Thunder, and the #2 Los Angeles Lakers vs the #3 Dallas Mavericks.  Everyone expected the Lakers and Mavericks to be here, but the Thunder surprisingly crushed a hot Nuggets team in five games while the Grizzlies defeated an elderly and fading Spurs squad in six.  At this point in time it seems like anybody's game regarding who will make the NBA finals, as the Lakers have yet to exude their dominance from the past few seasons.

Oklahoma City vs. Memphis

Z-Bo carried the Grizzlies to a
surprising upset over the top
seeded Spurs

The Thunder defeated Denver in convincing fashion 4-1, with Kevin Durant taking over games at will.  He averaged 32.4 ppg against the Nuggets and got to the free throw line an average of 11.4 times per game.  More importantly, Durant averaged 30.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg against the Grizzlies this year, yet the Thunder were only 1-3 against them during the regular season.  Will this trend continue? I doubt it. Memphis was 2-1 against the Thunder with Rudy Gay, and without him they lack a threat at the 3 on offense that can also force Durant into playing stronger on defense and tiring him.  Tony Allen and Shane Battier are adequate at defending Durant, but neither is capable of shutting him down.  Durant will get his points, although he may not shoot as well as he did in the Denver series.  If the Grizzlies want to win this series, they will need a strong offensive performance from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  These two players should make for some intriguing matchups with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed are capable fill-ins if the starters run into foul trouble.  At this point in time, stopping Zach Randolph seems pretty difficult.  He looked real impressive in the Spurs series and should continue to play well against OKC, as he averages 26.5 ppg, 13.0 rpg, and shot .580% from the field against OKC this year.  Considering Randolph's success seems like a given, Marc Gasol will have to perform well.  The matchup, that in my opinion, sways the series in OKC's favor, is Russell Westbrook against Mike Conley Jr.  Westbrook is an elite point guard and has put up 24.5 ppg and 9.0 apg against the Grizzlies this season.  Conley has been much less effective, to the tune of 13.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, and a dismal field goal percentage of .370%.  I just don't think Conley is the type of player that can carry a team deep into the playoffs, as point guard play and experience is of utmost importance in the playoffs.

Make it: Thunder in 6

L.A. Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks

Kobe looks to lead the Lakers
past the Mavs on their way to
a third straight championship

The Lakers looked pretty shaky at times against the New Orleans Hornets, but were able to right the ship and defeated the Hornets handily in Games 5 and 6 to put their fears to rest.  The Mavericks slipped up a bit against the Trail Blazers, letting a double digit lead evaporate in the fourth quarter to lose Game 4, but were able to close out their series at Portland with a dominating performance by Dirk Nowitzki.  The Lakers and Mavericks played three times this season, with the Lakers winning two of the three, and most notably the third game at home by 28 points.  Has this Lakers team played like two-time champions this season? No.  Can they repeat? Possibly.  Will they win this series? Definitely.  Andrew Bynum has returned to form and played spectacular down the stretch to end the regular season.  Although his health is a bit iffy at this point I still think he can have a profound impact in this series.  The Mavericks don't have the size to compete with the Lakers down low, as they can't play Dirk on either Gasol or Bynum.  However, what the Mavericks do have in their favor is superior point guard play and shooting from the outside.  Jason Kidd provides strong point guard play compared to Derek Fisher, while the outside shooting of Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic trumps that of Kobe, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes and Shannon Brown if they're in the game.  As great as the Mavericks can shoot at times, they can't compete with the Lakers down low and don't have any strong defenders to guard Kobe.

Make it: Lakers in 5

Kobe Bryant's Homophobic Slur: Too strong a punishment?

This past Tuesday Kobe Bryant lashed out at a referee following a technical foul.  Kobe alarming chose to use the phrase "fucking faggot" while directing his speech to the referee.  Following this angry incident, the NBA deliberated and decided to fine Kobe $100,000 for his remark. Clearly Kobe deserves to be fined for using a curse word to describe a minority orientation, but is it worth $100,000?



Clearly Kobe was yelling something
totally different here...

 The word 'faggot' or 'fag' has, unfortunately, become a part of some people's slang.  One may refer to someone as a 'fag' just because they are unathletic, dress in a peculiar way, or enjoying assuming typical domestic tasks such as cooking or cleaning, etc.  Clearly none of those determine sexual orientation, yet those words, to the chagrin of many, have been relatively mainstreamed into popular culture.  I can understand to a point that one can call his good friends a 'fag' or 'faggot' in a joking manner, as the friend clearly has no malintentions, but why joke around when it could be offensive and could have repercussions if used in a more public place? 

The backlash against Kobe's poor word choice has been strong, and for good reason.  Many people look up to Kobe as a role model, and why not? He's won five NBA titles, works hard and plays through injury, and has kept a pretty clean record besides his 'rape' trial in which he was acquitted.  Does Kobe have to be a role model? No. He's just out there playing basketball making a living.  But many people do see him as one, which is what makes his actions troubling.  One would expect such an exploit from DeMarcus Cousins or Rasheed Wallace, but not Kobe. 

Fortunately Kobe has already taken some steps to "repair" his image.  Kobe and the Lakers decided to team with the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation to help fight homophobia in basketball.  This is clearly great PR, but just because Kobe couldn't find a better word choice doesn't mean that he is a homophobe.  In a piece for the New York Times, a former NBA player cites: "You spoke ill-advised words that shot out like bullets, and if the emails I received from straight and gay young people and sports fans in Los Angeles alone are anything to go by, you did serious damage with your outburst."  Such a backlash is not surprising, but did serious damage occur? Kobe was clearly not speaking out against the homosexual community as a whole, let alone labeling the referee he was speaking to as a fag.  Yes his word choice was repulsive and ignorant, but was he seriously condemning the referee as a "fucking faggot"? No.  Kobe's large fine was not warranted, he'll learn enough from the backlash from the community and will probably put forth more than $100,000 worth of his time toward helping the homosexual community from this point out.  Chris Paul was recently fined $15,000 for 'verbally abusing' a referee. Verbal abuse generally means saying more then a two-word phrase.  Kobe clearly does not deserve a $100,000 fine for his ignorant actions, and it's unfortunate that the NBA feels the need to fine him such a large amount when he'll lose enough money and fans for his poor word choice.